trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $1,040 | −$656 | -63% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | May 28 | $6,477 | −$6,102 | -94% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | Mar 10 | $24,300 | −$24,300 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 06 | $3,182 | −$3,181 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? | Feb 25 | $3,999 | −$3,999 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? | Jan 03 | $1,507 | −$1,507 | -100% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 04 | $6,400 | −$6,400 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 17 | $5,208 | −$5,207 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? | Jul 29 | $11,359 | −$9,995 | -88% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? | Jun 26 | $2,123 | +$613 | +29% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 05 | $2,611 | −$2,611 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March? | Mar 15 | $2,250 | −$2,250 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 05 | $7,215 | −$7,214 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? | Jan 23 | $11,502 | −$11,500 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -81.5% | -83.3% | 0% | 0% | -95.1% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -81.5% | -83.3% | 0% | 0% | -95.1% |
| all | 14 | -88.2% | -89.3% | 7% | 7% | -96.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -89.3% | 7% | -96.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -90.3% | 7% | -96.9% |
| 15% | -91.2% | 0% | -97.2% |
| 20% | -92.1% | 0% | -97.5% |