Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:12:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa558…aa26
crypto · 70 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$5 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage42d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 50¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Down 50¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$3 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$8 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 01 $1 +$1 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% $0
world 6% $0
sports 3% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 47% +2.3%
≤30d 66 -2.1% -11.4% 45% 44% -10.8%
≤90d 67 -0.8% -10.2% 46% 45% -10.1%
all 67 -0.8% -10.2% 46% 45% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 45% -10.1%
10% -18.8% 43% -18.7%
15% -26.6% 43% -26.6%
20% -33.8% 42% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.92 · official $6.10 (match) · 152 history records