Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa557…6a40 crypto 1327 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,816 (-4%) realized −$3,742 · open −$1,074
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%719W / 731L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$149
sports 5% −$2,429
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 -52.4% -56.9% 32% 27% -34.2%
≤30d 634 -21.7% -29.2% 51% 40% -14.9%
≤90d 895 -18.0% -25.8% 54% 41% -15.1%
all 1450 -17.3% -25.1% 50% 41% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 41% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 33% -24.1%
15% -38.8% 26% -31.5%
20% -44.8% 20% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$43 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$3,742
Unrealized−$1,074
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses719 / 731
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1450 / 1327
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$81
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $115 $1 −$114 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $186 $0 −$186 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $230 $0 −$230 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 4PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
International T20 Series: Oman vs Zimbabwe (Game 1) Jun 17 $26 −$138 -531%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 3PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 4) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
U19 World Cup: England Under-19s vs India Under-19s Jun 17 $235 −$288 -122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $184 −$184 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$7 -333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 7AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$24 -1837%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
International T20 Series: Italy vs UAE (Game 1) Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$30 -808%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $126 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $15 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $43 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $27 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $103 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $110 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $16 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $105 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $271 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $4.93 · 3500 history records