Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

A5 0xa556…5c0e other 13 markets active 6d ago coverage 130d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$99 (+3%) realized +$359 · open −$260

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip

Net edge-43%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%3W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$282per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit46%portable

Net worth$424now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$189

14 days+$151

30 days+$763

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-43.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+58.4%	+43.3%	100%	100%	+43.3%
≤30d	6	-6.5%	-15.4%	50%	50%	+19.0%
≤90d	6	-6.5%	-15.4%	50%	50%	+19.0%
all	9	-37.4%	-43.4%	33%	33%	-2.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-43.4%	33%	-2.4%
10%	-48.8%	33%	-11.8%
15%	-53.7%	33%	-20.3%
20%	-58.3%	22%	-28.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -37% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$342 vs −$132 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.29 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage

Net worth$424

Realized+$359

Unrealized−$260

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses3 / 6

Open positions4

Markets (closed)9 / 13

History coverage130d

Avg bet$282

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 9 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	Yes	26¢	19¢	$522	$377	−$145 (-28%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	Yes	35¢	11¢	$70	$21	−$49 (-70%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	43¢	12¢	$63	$17	−$45 (-72%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	Yes	11¢	3¢	$29	$9	−$21 (-71%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	Jun 11	$325	+$189	+58%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	Jun 09	$146	−$39	-27%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	May 29	$1,000	+$451	+45%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 28?	May 28	$157	−$154	-98%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	May 28	$694	+$386	+56%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26?	May 26	$99	−$71	-71%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 4?	Mar 04	$41	−$41	-100%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$105 in February?	Feb 26	$52	−$52	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February?	Feb 24	$447	−$437	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	BUY Yes	35¢	$86	5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	BUY Yes	35¢	$293	5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June?	BUY Yes	35¢	$72	6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	SELL Yes	22¢	$13	6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June?	BUY Yes	11¢	$37	6d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	BUY Yes	45¢	$12	6d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	BUY Yes	43¢	$52	6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	SELL Yes	57¢	$514	6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?	BUY Yes	34¢	$325	7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	BUY Yes	16¢	$108	8d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	SELL Yes	11¢	$2	8d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	SELL Yes	11¢	$104	8d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	BUY Yes	15¢	$31	8d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?	BUY Yes	14¢	$115	8d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	8d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?	BUY Yes	15¢	$45	8d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	SELL Yes	22¢	$226	19d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	BUY Yes	23¢	$238	20d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	20d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 28?	BUY No	16¢	$12	20d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 28?	BUY No	16¢	$64	20d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 28?	BUY No	16¢	$3	20d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 28?	BUY No	16¢	$1	20d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 28?	BUY No	15¢	$76	20d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	SELL No	75¢	$289	20d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May?	SELL No	80¢	$484	20d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26?	SELL Down	4¢	$28	22d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26?	BUY Down	12¢	$4	22d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 26?	BUY Down	12¢	$1	22d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $424.12 · official $424.12 (match) · 63 history records