Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
A5 0xa553…789d other 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$757 (+16%) realized +$520 · open +$237
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$2,549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,291
7 days+$806
14 days+$740
30 days+$740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$1,053
sports 40% +$22
crypto 2% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +1.2% -8.5% 35% 35% +20.8%
≤30d 25 -6.9% -15.8% 32% 32% +17.6%
≤90d 25 -6.9% -15.8% 32% 32% +17.6%
all 25 -6.9% -15.8% 32% 32% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 32% +17.6%
10% -23.9% 32% +6.3%
15% -31.2% 32% -4.0%
20% -38.0% 32% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +30% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$67 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2,549
Realized+$520
Unrealized+$237
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions8
Markets (closed)25 / 33
History coverage8d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Haiti 49¢ 48¢ $974 $964 −$10 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $652 $863 +$212 (+32%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 88¢ $97 $225 +$128 (+132%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $226 $224 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $214 $144 −$70 (-33%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 40¢ $53 $89 +$36 (+67%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ $64 $30 −$34 (-53%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $9 −$22 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $355 +$366 +103%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $22 −$21 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $55 +$39 +72%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $55 +$48 +88%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $33 +$85 +259%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $555 +$795 +143%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $333 −$324 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 17 $66 −$63 -96%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $41 −$39 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $44 −$43 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $22 −$21 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $33 +$159 +482%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $333 −$326 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $66 +$180 +273%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $188 +$202 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $33 −$32 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $232 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 49¢ $999 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $666 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 19h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes $22 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $55 25h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $55 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $333 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 33h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $33 33h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $333 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes $66 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $555 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $41 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $66 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $22 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $333 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 5d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $33 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $66 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $188 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,549.34 · official $2,549.34 (match) · 51 history records