Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:31:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A5 0xa551…b686 politics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$1
other 38% $0
economics 12% $0
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage104d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $116 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $116 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $116 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $118 $0 +0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $117 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $118 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Mar 25 $118 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $235 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $118 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $116 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $116 15h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $116 2d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $116 4d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 20d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $116 20d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 22d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 22d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $116 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $3 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $67 30d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $47 30d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 34d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 35d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $116 42d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $116 42d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $118 62d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $118 63d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $118 63d
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $118 64d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $118 69d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $117 70d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $117 72d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $118 73d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $118 75d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $118 76d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $118 84d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $50 85d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $67 85d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $118 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records