trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 28¢ | $71,858 | $91,093 | +$19,234 (+27%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 9¢ | $11,603 | $16,609 | +$5,007 (+43%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? | Jun 09 | $58 | −$58 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Jun 09 | $12,881 | −$12,881 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 09 | $11,271 | +$132 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -66.3% | -69.5% | 33% | 0% | -57.4% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -66.3% | -69.5% | 33% | 0% | -57.4% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -66.3% | -69.5% | 33% | 0% | -57.4% |
| all | 3 | -66.3% | -69.5% | 33% | 0% | -57.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -69.5% | 0% | -57.4% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -72.4% | 0% | -61.5% |
| 15% | -75.1% | 0% | -65.2% |
| 20% | -77.5% | 0% | -68.6% |