Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa551…9626 other 34 markets active 6d ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$359 (-41%) realized −$355 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$103
politics 33% −$258
world 3% −$1
sports 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -67.3% -70.4% 14% 14% -60.8%
≤90d 8 -32.4% -38.8% 25% 25% -47.9%
all 30 -29.5% -36.2% 27% 23% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.2% 23% -48.7%
10% -42.3% 17% -53.6%
15% -47.9% 17% -58.1%
20% -53.0% 13% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$355
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage585d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Viking FK win on 2026-05-30? Yes 43¢ 69¢ $17 $28 +$10 (+60%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-71%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $8 $2 −$7 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-29? May 26 $42 −$41 -98%
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-29? May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $22 +$28 +129%
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-25? May 23 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-25? May 23 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-04-06? Apr 17 $6 +$14 +212%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Tommaso Giacomel (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 Feb 13 $26 −$25 -100%
Will Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympi Feb 13 $35 −$15 -43%
Will Erik Perrot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bi Feb 13 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Johan-Olav Botn (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 Feb 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Johannes Klaebo (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 Feb 13 $21 +$26 +125%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Feb 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Einer Hedegart (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 13 $12 +$2 +18%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 11 $70 +$41 +59%
Will Martin Loewstroem Nyenget (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Oly Feb 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 04 $40 −$3 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 29 $15 +$5 +36%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $15 +$2 +15%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Jan 22 $15 $0 -3%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Jan 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Enzo Maresca be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 08 $50 −$16 -32%
Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March? Jan 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Jan 31 $50 −$6 -13%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Jan 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? Nov 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 9¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 5d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 5d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will Viking FK win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 18d
Will Viking FK win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 21d
Will Viking FK win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 21d
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 21d
Will IK Start win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 21d
Will Aalesunds FK win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 25d
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 25d
Will Vålerenga Fotball win on 2026-05-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 25d
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-04-06? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 72d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 111d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 114d
Will Tommaso Giacomel (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 124d
Will Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympi SELL Yes 20¢ $10 124d
Will Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympi SELL Yes 20¢ $10 124d
Will Erik Perrot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bi SELL Yes 1¢ $1 124d
Will Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympi BUY Yes 35¢ $6 124d
Will Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympi BUY Yes 35¢ $29 124d
Will Erik Perrot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bi BUY Yes 29¢ $29 124d
Will Erik Perrot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bi BUY Yes 19¢ $1 124d
Will Tommaso Giacomel (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 BUY Yes 17¢ $25 124d
Will Tommaso Giacomel (ITA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 202 BUY Yes 17¢ $0 124d
Will Johan-Olav Botn (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $26 124d
Will Johan-Olav Botn (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $1 124d
Will Johannes Klaebo (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026 SELL No 0¢ $0 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.69 · official $39.50 · 84 history records