Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa54e…4775 crypto 1573 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$496 (-15%) realized −$495 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate58%915W / 650L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days+$2
14 days−$109
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$255
sports 25% −$83
other 23% −$40
weather 5% −$2
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +19.9% +8.5% 47% 42% -8.4%
≤30d 178 -14.2% -22.4% 47% 40% -28.9%
≤90d 1006 -2.9% -12.2% 60% 53% -21.0%
all 1565 -4.3% -13.4% 58% 51% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 51% -19.6%
10% -21.7% 39% -27.3%
15% -29.3% 29% -34.3%
20% -36.2% 22% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$495
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses915 / 650
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1565 / 1573
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1565 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Over 88¢ 67¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +226%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +215%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $1 +$8 +786%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -92%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -58%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +59%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Austri BUY 34¢ $3 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 29¢ $2 10h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $2 15h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 18h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $0 26h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $2 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 30h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $2 42h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 94¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.80 · official $11.80 · 3500 history records