Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:36:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa54d…7695 sports 597 markets active 8h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-1%) realized −$40 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%311W / 282L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$15
14 days−$66
30 days−$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$345
other 12% +$5
world 3% −$16
politics 1% −$7
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$9
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -15.7% -23.8% 40% 32% -17.6%
≤30d 228 -5.8% -14.7% 52% 44% -17.5%
≤90d 593 -2.9% -12.2% 52% 45% -14.8%
all 593 -2.9% -12.2% 52% 45% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 45% -14.8%
10% -20.6% 38% -22.9%
15% -28.3% 33% -30.4%
20% -35.3% 27% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses311 / 282
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions4
Markets (closed)593 / 597
History coverage72d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 73¢ 76¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 63¢ 61¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $8 +$9 +105%
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $4 +$2 +66%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $9 −$7 -75%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $7 −$4 -56%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $8 −$5 -64%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $7 −$5 -65%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $9 +$6 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 +$11 +101%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $3 −$2 -71%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03 Jun 25 $4 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $9 $0 +5%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -76%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $11 −$2 -21%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 24 $14 −$1 -9%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 +$2 +58%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $9 +$2 +18%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$9 +89%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $5 $0 +7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11 −$7 -70%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $2 +$2 +95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +88%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 −$7 -70%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +84%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $7 +$5 +79%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$9 -91%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$10 +95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$5 +52%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$6 -69%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $9 +$6 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +66%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 18 $9 +$10 +112%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $10 −$8 -81%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $6 +$4 +65%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 −$21 -157%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $9 +$10 +112%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $7 −$6 -80%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -94%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $13 −$11 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 49¢ $10 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $17 25h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 15¢ $2 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $8 27h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $9 27h
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $4 34h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) SELL Belgium 26¢ $3 45h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 56¢ $7 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 17¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 44¢ $8 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 22¢ $2 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $7 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $9 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 100¢ $4 3d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 14¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $2 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 38¢ $2 3d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 45¢ $3 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 48¢ $11 3d
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03 SELL Yes 98¢ $4 4d
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03 BUY Yes 97¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $9 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 14¢ $0 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 55¢ $2 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 4d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Qatar 45¢ $8 4d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 54¢ $11 4d
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.64 · official $30.64 (match) · 1297 history records