Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa54c…8dc0
sports · 102 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$103 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$114 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized+$114
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses43 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)89 / 102
History coverage121d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 12 History 89 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$81
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-57%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 58¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+33%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 24¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-58%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 55¢ 54¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Montpellier HSC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians Mumbai Indians 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +140%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -37%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $281 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 −$8 -55%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Florent Bax Jun 10 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $3 −$2 -65%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $3 $0 -1%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$4 +132%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $2 +$3 +162%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $7 −$5 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +71%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 +$3 +197%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +86%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +52%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +73%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 07 $10 −$1 -7%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Australia vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 06 $3 +$2 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 +$7 +130%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $2 +$3 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $8 +$3 +45%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $2 −$1 -58%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $9 +$8 +91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% +$75
sports 22% −$41
crypto 12% +$12
politics 6% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 5¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 8h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $3 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 8h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 8h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $36 31h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 31h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 31h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 32h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 32h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $140 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $1 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $80 32h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $91 32h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 39h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 44h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $11 44h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $149 44h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 44h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.0% -9.5% 49% 41% +3.9%
≤30d 61 +1.2% -8.4% 51% 46% +4.6%
≤90d 72 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 43% -2.6%
all 89 -0.5% -9.9% 48% 44% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 44% +2.6%
10% -18.6% 38% -7.2%
15% -26.4% 35% -16.2%
20% -33.6% 31% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.99 · official $50.99 · 237 history records