Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa54c…d63a other 269 markets active 6h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%12W / 257L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$24
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$48
sports 25% −$21
politics 9% −$7
economics 7% −$6
culture 5% −$6
world 4% −$4
crypto 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 189 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 269 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses12 / 257
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)269 / 269
History coverage133d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 269 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $366 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $747 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $207 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $111 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $738 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $127 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $351 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $533 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $199 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $231 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $284 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $411 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $177 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $480 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $270 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $315 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $199 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $220 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $346 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $217 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $229 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $107 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $886 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $677 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $138 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $400 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 5h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $55 7h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 9h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $35 11h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $35 12h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 14h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 15h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 17h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 18h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 21h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 22h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 27h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 28h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 30h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 31h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 33h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 35h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 36h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 37h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 42h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 43h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 45h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 47h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1345 history records