Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A5 0xa54a…f771 crypto 311 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$356 (-7%) realized −$332 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%97W / 213L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day32.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$443
7 days−$917
14 days−$792
30 days−$717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$638
sports 24% −$95
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -24.4% -31.6% 27% 25% -28.9%
≤30d 310 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 29% -22.9%
≤90d 310 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 29% -22.9%
all 310 -13.4% -21.6% 31% 29% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 29% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 27% -30.3%
15% -36.0% 26% -37.1%
20% -42.3% 23% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$332
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses97 / 213
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)310 / 311
History coverage25d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day32.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Down 38¢ 22¢ $55 $31 −$24 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $72 −$69 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $87 −$28 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $62 +$22 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $82 +$55 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $65 −$17 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $42 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $75 −$15 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $76 −$64 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $63 +$24 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $47 +$65 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $68 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $82 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $13 +$27 +214%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $14 −$14 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $7 −$7 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +43%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) Jun 27 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +106%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $6 −$6 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$13 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 26 $68 −$44 -64%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 26 $59 −$22 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 26 $80 −$15 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 26 $29 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$15 +256%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $36 −$36 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $15 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $15 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $34 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $15 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $8 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $15 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $34 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $15 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $24 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $53 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $24 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $24 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $42 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $24 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $43 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $24 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $66 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $22 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $36 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $22 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $34 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $22 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $22 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $43 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.00 · official $245.36 · 1011 history records