Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa549…ad3a sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$62 (+35%) realized +$26 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$41
other 20% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+69.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +87.4% +69.5% 100% 100% +74.3%
≤30d 2 +87.4% +69.5% 100% 100% +74.3%
≤90d 2 +87.4% +69.5% 100% 100% +74.3%
all 2 +87.4% +69.5% 100% 100% +74.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.5% 100% +74.3%
10% +53.3% 50% +57.6%
15% +38.5% 50% +42.4%
20% +24.9% 50% +28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +93% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt +93% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 56¢ $40 $72 +$32 (+79%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 44¢ 50¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $35 +$55 +158%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $30 +$5 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 44¢ $31 29m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance SELL Morocco 41¢ $37 46m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 43¢ $41 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $41 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 38¢ $35 8h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $35 8h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $30 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.05 · official $106.05 (match) · 8 history records