Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A5 0xa547…95eb crypto 325 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,481 (-14%) realized −$2,489 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate55%222W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day112.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$919
7 days−$1,046
14 days−$1,103
30 days−$3,120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$2,143
crypto 36% −$106
tech 2% −$7
finance 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 396 -32.5% -38.9% 55% 32% -20.9%
≤30d 407 -31.2% -37.8% 55% 32% -25.1%
≤90d 407 -31.2% -37.8% 55% 32% -25.1%
all 407 -31.2% -37.8% 55% 32% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.8% 32% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 31% -32.3%
15% -49.2% 1% -38.8%
20% -54.1% 1% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$21 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$2,489
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses222 / 185
Open positions1
Markets (closed)407 / 325
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day112.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Up 69¢ 75¢ $82 $90 +$8 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 167 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$48 -597%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Jun 17 $6 −$9 -158%
LoL: Dragons Esports vs GnG Amazigh (BO3) - Arabian League Seeding Pha Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 11PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$29 -223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 12AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: MVK Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 18, 6AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Los Ratones (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 78¢ $4 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 77¢ $4 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 76¢ $4 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 75¢ $4 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 72¢ $4 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 72¢ $4 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 71¢ $4 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 75¢ $4 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 77¢ $4 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 67¢ $3 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 79¢ $4 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 65¢ $3 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 65¢ $3 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 65¢ $3 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 65¢ $3 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 65¢ $3 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 63¢ $3 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 59¢ $3 5h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 58¢ $3 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 58¢ $3 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 56¢ $3 6h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 56¢ $3 6h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 95¢ $146 13h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 95¢ $2 13h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 95¢ $5 13h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 95¢ $34 13h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 97¢ $5 13h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 97¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.00 · official $90.00 (match) · 3500 history records