Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa547…4a15 crypto 297 markets active 18h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$208 (-9%) realized −$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%116W / 181L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$54
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$261
world 0% −$7
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 102 -7.1% -16.0% 41% 36% -27.6%
≤30d 102 -7.1% -16.0% 41% 36% -27.6%
≤90d 102 -7.1% -16.0% 41% 36% -27.6%
all 297 -18.4% -26.2% 39% 36% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 36% -20.8%
10% -33.2% 33% -28.4%
15% -39.7% 30% -35.3%
20% -45.6% 28% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses116 / 181
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 297
History coverage104d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions (148 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -76%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Solana reach $80 June 8-14? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +91%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +198%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 502 history records