Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa545…d561 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-6%) realized −$31 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$22
crypto 2% −$6
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-68.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -65.6% -68.9% 10% 10% -49.0%
≤30d 10 -65.6% -68.9% 10% 10% -49.0%
≤90d 10 -65.6% -68.9% 10% 10% -49.0%
all 10 -65.6% -68.9% 10% 10% -49.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.9% 10% -49.0%
10% -71.8% 10% -53.9%
15% -74.6% 10% -58.3%
20% -77.0% 10% -62.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -66% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$8 · ×3.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)10 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 25¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+22%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $16 $26 +$10 (+59%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $12 $18 +$6 (+46%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-81%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$31 +206%
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E5 S9 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 −$7 -17%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $7 −$6 -87%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $26 −$22 -84%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$23 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 1h
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E5 S9 BUY Yes 29¢ $2 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 38¢ $11 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $15 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $17 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 38¢ $20 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $17 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $4 24h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 47h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 6¢ $1 47h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 45¢ $7 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 5d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 5d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $26 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 5d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 5d
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.48 · official $175.49 (match) · 39 history records