Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
A5 0xa541…c2a1 crypto 1032 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (329 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,583 (-42%) realized −$5,583 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%492W / 539L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day329.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (329 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 729 -9.9% -18.5% 49% 49% -22.3%
≤30d 1031 -9.3% -18.0% 48% 48% -18.0%
≤90d 1031 -9.3% -18.0% 48% 48% -18.0%
all 1031 -9.3% -18.0% 48% 48% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover329.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 48% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 48% -25.8%
15% -33.0% 47% -33.0%
20% -39.6% 43% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$5,583
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses492 / 539
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1031 / 1032
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day329.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1031 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 60¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 31m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.07 · official $2.81 (match) · 3500 history records