Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa541…a934 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$10 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$35
other 40% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 33% -1.4%
≤30d 15 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 33% -1.4%
≤90d 15 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 33% -1.4%
all 15 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 33% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.3% 33% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -30.6% 33% -10.8%
15% -37.3% 33% -19.4%
20% -43.5% 33% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $79 $68 −$11 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$4 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $62 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $106 +$66 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$11 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $106 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.87 · official $168.87 (match) · 42 history records