Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa53d…6f36 world 6 markets active 5d ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$3
tech 26% −$3
finance 24% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 5 +0.5% -9.0% 80% 0% -9.1%
all 5 +0.5% -9.0% 80% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage81d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $170 $171 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 30 $167 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 07 $167 −$4 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $169 +$3 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 03 $70 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 03 $98 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $170 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $169 17d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $167 34d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 SELL Yes 78¢ $163 40d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 79¢ $167 46d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 98¢ $169 65d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $168 65d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $169 74d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $70 85d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $98 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.60 · official $170.60 (match) · 13 history records