Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa539…c217 other 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$26 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%54W / 87L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$48
14 days−$20
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% −$4
politics 23% +$47
tech 18% −$27
other 17% −$30
economics 6% −$9
crypto 3% −$18
culture 2% −$10
sports 2% +$54
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +100.5% +81.4% 17% 17% +16.9%
≤30d 49 +12.6% +1.8% 16% 6% -11.7%
≤90d 119 +2.2% -7.5% 29% 10% -9.6%
all 141 +2.8% -7.0% 38% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 12% -9.5%
10% -15.9% 11% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 10% -26.1%
20% -31.5% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses54 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)141 / 149
History coverage151d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 54¢ 38¢ $16 $11 −$5 (-31%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 36¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+49%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 89¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 17 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o Jun 15 $3 +$31 +1011%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $5 +$33 +644%
Will Christian Pulisic score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will Germany be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Jun 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 09 $13 −$2 -13%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 09 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $19 −$5 -29%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $27 −$4 -15%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $31 −$19 -63%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Jun 09 $74 −$3 -4%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $15 −$9 -59%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 04 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 04 $1 $0 -16%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 04 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Lorenzo Radice win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election? Jun 04 $6 $0 -6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 04 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $154 −$2 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 04 $43 −$3 -8%
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 04 $2 −$1 -54%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $4 $0 +5%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $179 −$1 -1%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? May 31 $9 −$2 -19%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026? May 31 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? May 31 $6 $0 -3%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? May 31 $11 $0 -2%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? May 31 $11 $0 +3%
Epstein client list released by June 30? May 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $95 −$3 -3%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? May 27 $95 −$2 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $95 $0 +0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 27 $83 +$1 +1%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 27 $10 $0 -3%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 27 $13 $0 -3%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May? May 27 $116 −$2 -2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? May 26 $1 $0 +11%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? May 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 19 $7 −$2 -34%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 19 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $98 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $1 43m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 35¢ $3 43m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 51m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 12¢ $1 52m
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $95 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $103 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $2 21h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Jordan win on 2026- BUY $2 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY $2 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o SELL 96¢ $34 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes $2 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win o BUY $3 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14 BUY $3 3d
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 25¢ $5 3d
Will Christian Pulisic score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4d
Will Germany be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 SELL No 93¢ $9 4d
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? SELL No 60¢ $12 4d
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 86¢ $17 4d
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 12¢ $2 4d
Will Christian Pulisic score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 13¢ $1 4d
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 4d
Will Germany be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 93¢ $9 4d
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 13¢ $1 4d
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 30¢ $3 4d
Will John Stones be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 30¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.55 · official $124.26 (match) · 539 history records