Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa539…54da other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$162 (+10%) realized +$59 · open +$103
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$135
7 days−$135
14 days−$135
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$32
politics 30% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -30.5% -37.1% 0% 0% -37.2%
≤30d 2 -30.5% -37.1% 0% 0% -37.2%
≤90d 6 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 33% -5.5%
all 7 +4.1% -5.8% 57% 29% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 29% -5.3%
10% -14.8% 29% -14.3%
15% -23.0% 29% -22.6%
20% -30.6% 14% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$46 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$771
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage100d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $345 $371 +$26 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $251 $330 +$79 (+31%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $65 $63 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $330 −$101 -31%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $111 −$34 -30%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 11 $233 +$90 +38%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 16 $17 −$3 -20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $162 +$85 +52%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 03 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 14 $45 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $228 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 43h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 43h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $22 43h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $24 43h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $34 43h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $77 44h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $57 9d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $234 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $308 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $321 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 35¢ $28 38d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 35¢ $28 52d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $14 62d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 19¢ $14 63d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 64d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 23¢ $17 64d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 25¢ $17 64d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 34¢ $17 64d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 42¢ $22 64d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 23¢ $22 64d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 17¢ $30 66d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 44¢ $56 66d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 45¢ $173 66d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 71d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 72d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $45 72d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 73d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 10¢ $65 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $771.08 · official $771.33 (match) · 55 history records