Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa538…d3b0 politics 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$718 (-0%) realized −$719 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate14%20W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,740per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$221
politics 38% −$110
sports 13% −$402
culture 5% −$16
world 4% −$14
economics 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 39 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -2.4% -11.7% 8% 4% -9.7%
all 141 -5.4% -14.4% 14% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 11% -9.8%
10% -22.6% 11% -18.4%
15% -30.0% 9% -26.3%
20% -36.9% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 56% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,377) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$23 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized−$719
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses20 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,740
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $260 $261 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $436 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $2,313 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,078 −$5 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $989 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,949 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,935 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,752 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $960 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $2,688 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $6,856 −$9 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $60 +$65 +109%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $6,564 −$10 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,071 −$2 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,817 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $4,238 −$6 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $7,107 −$8 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,836 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,686 −$4 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $77 +$66 +86%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $594 +$1 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $5,862 −$9 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $4,867 −$5 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,691 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,792 −$4 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $3,735 −$5 -0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,377 −$3 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $45 +$50 +109%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 19 $724 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $956 −$956 -100%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,680 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,589 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $436 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $436 3h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $670 5h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $671 6h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $379 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $379 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $994 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $995 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $988 5d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $989 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,060 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $914 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $915 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $848 6d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $850 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $895 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $896 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,037 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,038 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $973 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $974 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $961 11d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $962 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,057 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,058 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $959 11d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $960 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,009 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.04 · official $261.04 (match) · 522 history records