Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A5 0xa536…c38c world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,971 (-75%) realized −$9,895 · open −$76
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,664per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,624now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$9,885
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +39.2% +26.0% 33% 33% -47.6%
≤30d 4 +4.4% -5.5% 25% 25% -86.0%
≤90d 4 +4.4% -5.5% 25% 25% -86.0%
all 4 +4.4% -5.5% 25% 25% -86.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 25% -86.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 25% -87.3%
15% -22.8% 25% -88.5%
20% -30.4% 25% -89.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$3,351 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,624
Realized−$9,895
Unrealized−$76
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,664
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 50¢ 46¢ $1,000 $918 −$82 (-8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 57¢ $300 $333 +$33 (+11%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 27¢ 20¢ $300 $230 −$70 (-23%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 21¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $100 +$245 +245%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $2,010 −$553 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $8,500 −$8,500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,623.61 · official $1,625.43 (match) · 11 history records