Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa533…acac other 740 markets active 1h ago coverage 700d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,400 (+4%) realized +$12,447 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate62%454W / 284L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$401per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1,063est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$753now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days−$564
14 days+$2,061
30 days+$6,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$4,211
sports 39% +$5,442
crypto 2% −$15
world 1% +$623
politics 0% −$648
economics 0% +$396
culture 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +6.7% -3.5% 54% 54% -11.8%
≤30d 139 +7.4% -2.8% 60% 60% -2.1%
≤90d 268 +0.6% -9.0% 59% 59% -5.8%
all 738 -0.9% -10.4% 62% 60% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 60% -6.4%
10% -18.9% 49% -15.4%
15% -26.8% 39% -23.5%
20% -33.9% 24% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$233 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

700d coverage
Net worth$753
Realized+$12,447
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses454 / 284
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,063
Open positions1
Markets (closed)738 / 740
History coverage700d
Avg bet$401
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 738 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 56¢ $800 $753 −$47 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $178 +$203 +114%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 28 $304 +$241 +79%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $1,110 +$390 +35%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $203 +$168 +83%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $103 +$522 +510%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $305 +$303 +99%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $631 −$630 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $707 +$323 +46%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,736 +$345 +20%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,209 +$527 +44%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $304 −$97 -32%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $305 −$300 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,080 +$408 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $354 +$185 +52%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $355 −$350 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,777 +$470 +26%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $213 −$15 -7%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $68 +$44 +65%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $152 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $153 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $203 +$161 +79%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $152 +$94 +62%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $152 +$116 +76%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $151 +$52 +34%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $152 +$116 +76%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $152 +$76 +50%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $153 −$12 -8%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $153 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $504 +$200 +40%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $352 −$350 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,499 +$459 +31%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $507 −$24 -5%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $304 −$266 -87%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $354 −$350 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $505 +$223 +44%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $203 +$205 +101%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $354 −$350 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $203 −$13 -7%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $51 +$76 +149%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $355 −$350 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $505 +$188 +37%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 +$189 +93%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $304 +$241 +79%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $430 +$281 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $810 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $178 8h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $129 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $91 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $4 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $53 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $1,133 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $259 9h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $31 9h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 55¢ $304 30h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Nigma Galaxy 54¢ $203 31h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 16¢ $103 33h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 49¢ $305 34h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 74¢ $1,110 36h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $131 43h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $446 43h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 63¢ $54 43h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $707 47h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $1,736 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 69¢ $1,209 2d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner SELL ECHO 42¢ $207 2d
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 61¢ $304 2d
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 44¢ $305 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 76¢ $1,140 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,295 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,080 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $354 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $355 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,247 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $752.54 · official $752.54 (match) · 2000 history records