Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:39:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa530…87cf crypto 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-3%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate90%78W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$57
other 15% −$2
tech 5% +$2
economics 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 87 -4.9% -13.9% 90% 2% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 2% -12.5%
10% -22.2% 0% -20.9%
15% -29.7% 0% -28.5%
20% -36.6% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses78 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage529d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $113 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $113 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 01 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 07 $112 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $106 +$5 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? Jan 20 $25 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in January 2026? Jan 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 20 $43 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high before 2026? Jan 05 $3 $0 +12%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Jan 05 $5 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $29 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 05 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 29 $54 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7? Dec 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 December 1-7? Dec 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 05 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 04 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 November 10-16? Dec 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Palantir reach $264 in November? Dec 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on November Nov 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novemb Nov 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $14 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in October 2025? Nov 04 $15 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 04 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,900 September 22-28? Oct 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $119K September 8–14? Sep 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 8–14? Sep 24 $20 $0 +2%
Solana reach 240 September 1–7? Sep 14 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 September 1–7? Sep 14 $14 $0 +2%
Solana above $160 on August 11? Sep 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $117K on August 11 at 5PM ET? Sep 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 03 $12 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 3 Aug 11 $7 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 10? Aug 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 21 $19 −$11 -59%
Rabby airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $4 $0 +2%
Rainbow airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $5 $0 +4%
Yoon in jail before July? Jul 10 $7 $0 +1%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $113 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $113 18d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 99¢ $112 44d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $112 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 95d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $27 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $106 131d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 165d
Will Ethereum reach $3,900 January 5-11? BUY No 99¢ $25 165d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 165d
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 172d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY No 100¢ $54 186d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 98¢ $28 187d
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? SELL No 90¢ $18 196d
Will Solana reach $190 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $23 198d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 December 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $17 198d
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? BUY No 90¢ $18 198d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $21 198d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 198d
Will Bitcoin reach $112,000 November 10-16? BUY No 100¢ $16 216d
Will Palantir reach $264 in November? BUY No 99¢ $16 216d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $15 227d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $15 227d
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novemb BUY No 97¢ $15 227d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 98¢ $15 227d
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in October 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 247d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on October 31? BUY No 97¢ $14 247d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $15 247d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 99¢ $14 259d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.72 · official $112.72 (match) · 184 history records