trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solana Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | Down | 50¢ | 0¢ | $9 | $0 | −$9 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 13 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $34 | +$2 | +5% |
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | Jun 12 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 09 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Solana Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET | May 26 | $9 | −$9 | -97% |
| Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam | Apr 27 | $90 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? | Apr 24 | $19 | −$4 | -21% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 23 | $111 | +$3 | +3% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Apr 20 | $87 | +$3 | +4% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom | Apr 11 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 11 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Apr 11 | $302 | $0 | +0% |
| Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? | Apr 10 | $301 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 10 | $77 | −$1 | -1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Mar 16 | $218 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Mar 13 | $218 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | Mar 13 | $218 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +1.2% | -8.4% | 25% | 0% | -8.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -19.0% | -26.7% | 20% | 0% | -13.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -7.3% | -16.2% | 33% | 0% | -9.8% |
| all | 17 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 35% | 0% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.4% | 0% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -23.5% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -30.9% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -37.6% | 0% | -33.5% |