Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa530…60ef other 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,909 (-1%) realized −$1,910 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate28%35W / 90L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,110per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$827now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$11
14 days−$23
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$68
other 29% −$17
sports 15% −$1,837
world 6% −$4
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$3
crypto 2% +$9
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -16.5% -24.4% 8% 0% -11.9%
all 125 -0.9% -10.3% 28% 9% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 9% -10.8%
10% -18.9% 9% -19.3%
15% -26.7% 8% -27.1%
20% -33.9% 6% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,503) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$26 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$827
Realized−$1,910
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses35 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,110
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $825 $827 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,857 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,809 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,901 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $260 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,162 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $4,233 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,915 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,508 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,573 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,870 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,375 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $458 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $625 +$3 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,576 −$4 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,232 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,623 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 06 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 06 $1,492 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $2,922 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 01 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 01 $323 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $361 +$1 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $531 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $5,263 −$5 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,491 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $4,687 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,433 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,628 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $3,073 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $5,182 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,418 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $81 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $69 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $294 1m
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $295 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $463 26h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $464 27h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $353 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $353 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $260 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $825 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,045 6d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,047 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,080 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,082 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,482 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,484 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,505 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,507 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,506 10d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,508 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,571 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,573 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,560 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,562 15d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,299 17d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,301 18d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,309 18d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,311 18d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,507 18d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,510 18d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,383 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $826.63 · official $826.63 (match) · 370 history records