Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa52f…e7a6 other 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 255L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$22
14 days−$33
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$41
sports 23% −$24
culture 8% −$12
politics 7% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
economics 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 271 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)271 / 272
History coverage142d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $200 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $304 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $392 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $236 $0 +0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $424 −$5 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $345 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $602 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $174 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $369 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $505 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $492 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $256 $0 +0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $623 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $363 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $138 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $342 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $236 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $274 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $428 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 5h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 6h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 8h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 10h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 11h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 12h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 14h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $54 18h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $54 20h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 27h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 29h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 33h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 34h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 36h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 38h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 39h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 45h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 46h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.97 · official $52.97 (match) · 1476 history records