Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:12:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

A5 0xa52e…48fe other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$224 (+49%) realized +$231 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$114per market

Trades / day8.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-12.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-3.1%	-12.4%	33%	33%	+52.1%
≤30d	3	-3.1%	-12.4%	33%	33%	+52.1%
≤90d	3	-3.1%	-12.4%	33%	33%	+52.1%
all	3	-3.1%	-12.4%	33%	33%	+52.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.4%	33%	+52.1%
10%	-20.7%	33%	+37.5%
15%	-28.4%	33%	+24.2%
20%	-35.4%	33%	+12.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +68% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +68% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$273 vs −$15 · ×17.82 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.91 per $1 lost it wins $8.91

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized+$231

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$114

Trades / day8.4

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$50	$43	−$7 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$305	+$273	+90%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?	Jun 25	$41	−$27	-66%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany?	Jun 25	$10	−$3	-33%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	2¢	$51	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL No	100¢	$578	8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	49¢	$147	9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	55¢	$157	10h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?	SELL Yes	0¢	$14	12h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	SELL Yes	1¢	$19	13h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany?	SELL Yes	1¢	$7	29h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden?	BUY Yes	1¢	$41	29h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	32h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	32h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France?	BUY Yes	2¢	$36	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.48 · official $43.48 (match) · 11 history records