Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa52c…bd18 crypto 662 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-4%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%363W / 299L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$35
14 days+$30
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$86
weather 3% −$39
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 +8.1% -2.2% 56% 55% -5.5%
≤30d 147 +6.2% -3.9% 56% 56% -6.1%
≤90d 662 -7.3% -16.1% 55% 52% -14.3%
all 662 -7.3% -16.1% 55% 52% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 52% -14.3%
10% -24.2% 49% -22.5%
15% -31.5% 40% -30.0%
20% -38.2% 31% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses363 / 299
Open positions0
Markets (closed)662 / 662
History coverage86d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 662 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$6 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1551 history records