Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:26:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
A5 0xa52b…7d40 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 88L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$3
politics 22% −$7
economics 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
sports 2% +$20
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 +3.5% -6.3% 12% 9% -9.5%
all 100 +3.5% -6.3% 12% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 9% -9.5%
10% -15.3% 9% -18.2%
15% -23.5% 9% -26.1%
20% -31.0% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage88d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $191 $191 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $249 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $38 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $102 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $328 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $317 $0 -0%
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $136 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $307 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $266 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $546 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $274 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $285 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $265 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $281 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $289 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $290 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $278 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 02 $281 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $268 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $285 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $282 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 28 $288 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $547 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $262 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 18 $267 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $501 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $294 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $279 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $550 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $508 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $61 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $191 28h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 45h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $38 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 9d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 14d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 16d
Will paiN win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 16d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 24d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $47 25d
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $47 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $136 29d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $268 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.51 · official $251.51 (match) · 320 history records