Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:13:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa52b…9480
crypto · 298 markets active 18h ago
0.0score
+$108,598 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$114,865 · open −$6,267
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$202,698
Realized+$114,865
Unrealized−$6,267
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses269 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions10
Markets (closed)288 / 298
History coverage249d
Avg bet$17,785
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 10 History 288 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,294
7 days+$1,338
14 days+$8,700
30 days+$27,881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $85,080 $85,542 +$462 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $34,694 $34,962 +$268 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $32,316 $33,473 +$1,157 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $12,881 $21,808 +$8,927 (+69%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $14,707 $14,694 −$13 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 80¢ 89¢ $5,357 $5,932 +$575 (+11%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $12,881 $3,954 −$8,927 (-69%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 76¢ 89¢ $1,039 $1,220 +$181 (+17%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 66¢ 72¢ $554 $609 +$54 (+10%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 87¢ 82¢ $487 $464 −$23 (-5%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 64¢ 60¢ $42 $39 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $2,255 +$63 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $33,480 +$1,231 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $391 +$44 +11%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 04 $8,840 +$692 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $59,447 +$1,542 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $2,717 +$69 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $64,627 +$3,979 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $478 +$24 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $31,790 +$346 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $16,697 +$303 +2%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $12,964 +$408 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 25 $113,274 +$10,308 +9%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 25 $1,814 +$219 +12%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $29,700 +$300 +1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $31,917 +$287 +1%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? May 22 $1,205 +$80 +7%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $33,165 +$835 +2%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $32,199 +$1,413 +4%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,278 +$222 +17%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $42 +$8 +18%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 19 $236 +$14 +6%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $34,673 +$835 +2%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $14,721 +$497 +3%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 18 $5,005 +$177 +4%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $13,612 +$988 +7%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $844 +$43 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $69,063 +$581 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 15 $133 −$133 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $12,220 +$280 +2%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 14 $792 +$8 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $57,600 +$2,220 +4%
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? May 12 $1,187 +$159 +13%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 04 $404 +$20 +5%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $1,660 +$647 +39%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $29 −$20 -70%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $547 −$82 -15%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 03 $217 −$77 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 03 $25,868 +$2,470 +10%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by April 30? May 01 $659 +$41 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $36,669 +$1,230 +3%
Will no one dissent the April Fed decision? May 01 $161 +$8 +5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $7,266 −$820 -11%
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 29 $20 −$18 -88%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $290 +$18 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $12,312 +$75 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $9,880 +$110 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $200 −$32 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $12,554 +$347 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 18 $52,883 +$7,392 +14%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 17 $135 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 48% −$3,270
world 15% −$20,340
economics 13% +$117,902
politics 8% −$1,899
sports 8% +$11,454
other 5% +$3,676
tech 3% +$146
finance 0% +$541
culture 0% +$387
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 94¢ $2,318 17h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $34,709 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $34,711 45h
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $436 6d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $133 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $92 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $8 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $8 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $294 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $120 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $340 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $669 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $39 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $6 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $28 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $12 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $1 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $172 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $5 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $6 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $166 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $267 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $23 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $74 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $340 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $144 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $1 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $276 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $39 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 92¢ $49 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.9% -4.2% 100% 33% -6.2%
≤30d 31 +1.8% -7.9% 97% 13% -5.9%
≤90d 67 -1.7% -11.1% 88% 12% -5.6%
all 288 +0.9% -8.7% 93% 8% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 8% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 3% -16.3%
15% -25.4% 2% -24.4%
20% -32.7% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202,697.93 · official $202,697.93 (match) · 3500 history records