Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa529…677e sports 668 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,026 (-5%) realized −$6,026 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate66%438W / 228L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$669est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$80
14 days−$5,339
30 days−$4,998
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$8,445
other 13% +$1,911
world 0% −$13
crypto 0% −$7
politics 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -7.5% -16.3% 60% 56% -17.5%
≤30d 290 -9.1% -17.8% 62% 61% -55.9%
≤90d 665 -1.9% -11.3% 66% 63% -14.5%
all 666 -1.7% -11.1% 66% 64% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 64% -14.3%
10% -19.6% 44% -22.5%
15% -27.4% 24% -30.0%
20% -34.5% 9% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$124 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$6,026
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses438 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$669
Open positions2
Markets (closed)666 / 668
History coverage91d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 78¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 +$5 +29%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs Jun 17 $13 +$22 +165%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $17 +$4 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $48 +$19 +39%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 +$13 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $47 −$40 -86%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$2 +18%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $8 −$3 -42%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +70%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +36%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 +$3 +52%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$7 +197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $26 +$8 +32%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $66 −$56 -84%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $51 +$15 +29%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $16 +$4 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $14 +$18 +129%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $14 −$1 -5%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $7 +$3 +53%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $7 +$3 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $80 +$6 +8%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 11 $8 −$1 -6%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $7 +$3 +40%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $7 −$3 -48%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $8 −$4 -56%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $17 +$3 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $16 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $7 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $16 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $17 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $15 18h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs BUY 37¢ $13 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL 98¢ $66 18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY 70¢ $48 34h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $17 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $8 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $40 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $7 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $7 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $47 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $9 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 46¢ $5 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY 58¢ $6 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $8 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 2d
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $7 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $7 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $8 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $7 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 88¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.80 · official $30.80 (match) · 1372 history records