Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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A5 0xa527…4df8 sports 1308 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-2%) realized −$75 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%640W / 665L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$108
14 days−$81
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$105
sports 21% +$41
other 8% +$6
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$3
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 252 -16.2% -24.2% 46% 46% -37.6%
≤30d 833 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 56% -15.7%
≤90d 1305 -7.2% -16.1% 49% 47% -13.4%
all 1305 -7.2% -16.1% 49% 47% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 47% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 42% -21.7%
15% -31.4% 41% -29.3%
20% -38.2% 39% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$75
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses640 / 665
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1305 / 1308
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 57¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+47%)
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage Mentality Monster 58¢ 72¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 59¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Over 57¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Roar Gaming 57¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) XLG Gaming 60¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 56¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Argentina to win the second half? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage ex-RUBY 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals No 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner 100 Thieves 53¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Over 57¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
France leading at halftime? No 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 58¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 47¢ 49¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Hanwha Eagles Hanwha Eagles 57¢ 29¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3? Yes 57¢ 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in San Diego County? Yes 59¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 56¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 55¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 470 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Ōita Trinita (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungaria Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Senators vs. Islanders Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Rangers vs. Stars Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Stoke City FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Capitals vs. Penguins Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Oilers vs. Kings Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-11? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Senators vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 58¢ $1 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $1 1h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 57¢ $1 2h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $1 3h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 55¢ $1 4h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 4h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 60¢ $1 4h
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: Draw at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $1 5h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 53¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 58¢ $1 6h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 6h
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 8h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) BUY Dallas Wings 54¢ $1 9h
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1 9h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 9h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 BUY Yes 57¢ $1 12h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 59¢ $1 12h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) BUY 9z 60¢ $1 23h
Belgium to win the second half? BUY No 53¢ $1 24h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 54¢ $1 25h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 57¢ $1 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $1 29h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $1 30h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 57¢ $1 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.46 · official $28.94 (match) · 3500 history records