Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

A5 0xa526…c9f9 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$13,112 (-30%) realized −$12,343 · open −$769

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%14W / 14L

Whale WR29%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,449per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$303est.

Kalshi-fit90%portable

Net worth$4,221now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$978

7 days−$4,489

14 days−$15,471

30 days−$15,471

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-16.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-22.0%	-29.5%	40%	40%	-34.6%
≤30d	23	-25.9%	-32.9%	39%	39%	-51.3%
≤90d	23	-25.9%	-32.9%	39%	39%	-51.3%
all	28	-7.2%	-16.0%	50%	50%	-40.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.0%	50%	-40.6%
10%	-24.0%	46%	-46.3%
15%	-31.4%	43%	-51.4%
20%	-38.1%	39%	-56.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 29% (≥$2,065) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +2% → late -16% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$791 vs −$1,726 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage

Net worth$4,221

Realized−$12,343

Unrealized−$769

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses14 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)29%

Est. fees paid−$303

Open positions2

Markets (closed)28 / 30

History coverage98d

Avg bet$1,449

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 28 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	30¢	23¢	$3,911	$3,023	−$888 (-23%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Spirit	48¢	54¢	$1,079	$1,199	+$119 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Jun 18	$230	−$225	-98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	Jun 18	$1,019	−$1,004	-98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$2,394	+$3,613	+151%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$2,086	−$2,065	-99%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	Jun 17	$1,430	+$658	+46%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$8	−$8	-97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	Jun 13	$1,998	−$1,957	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 13	$207	−$200	-97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	Jun 13	$2,456	−$2,434	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$1,148	+$1,307	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 12	$414	+$361	+87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 12	$103	+$90	+87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 12	$314	−$300	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 12	$103	+$87	+84%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$2,454	−$2,414	-98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)	Jun 12	$1,569	−$1,550	-99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$1,014	+$873	+86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	Jun 11	$2,060	+$1,092	+53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 11	$641	+$617	+96%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	Jun 11	$1,829	−$1,829	-100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff	Jun 11	$4,144	−$4,144	-100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playo	Jun 11	$4,400	−$4,400	-100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5)	Jun 11	$1,660	−$1,640	-99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl	Mar 14	$2,967	+$707	+24%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	Mar 14	$1,013	+$815	+80%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5)	Mar 14	$345	+$668	+194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Mar 14	$169	+$27	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Mar 14	$196	+$159	+81%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	50¢	$443	1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY Spirit	47¢	$653	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY 9z	26¢	$230	23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY BetBoom Team	50¢	$1,019	26h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	30¢	$3,994	42h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	39¢	$2,394	44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	65¢	$2,086	46h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime	BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime	68¢	$1,430	2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$8	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage	BUY Monte	31¢	$1,998	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$104	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$104	6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	70¢	$2,456	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$1,148	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$103	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$105	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$105	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$105	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$103	6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	45¢	$2,454	6d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)	BUY Spirit	60¢	$1,569	7d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	53¢	$1,014	7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	SELL Spirit	99¢	$3,152	7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag	BUY Spirit	64¢	$2,060	7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$1,258	7d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Team Falcons	50¢	$641	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,221.42 · official $4,555.97 · 62 history records