Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa525…c24d crypto 1410 markets active 5h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-5%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate71%997W / 413L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$79
sports 9% −$13
other 4% −$18
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -9.4% -18.0% 85% 10% -17.1%
≤30d 396 -3.6% -12.8% 87% 15% -12.4%
≤90d 1258 -6.7% -15.6% 74% 26% -15.1%
all 1410 -6.8% -15.7% 71% 28% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 28% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 18% -23.8%
15% -31.1% 12% -31.2%
20% -37.9% 8% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses997 / 413
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1410 / 1410
History coverage104d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1410 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3181 history records