trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 56% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 56% | 0% | -8.8% |
| all | 26 | -1.8% | -11.2% | 58% | 0% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.2% | 0% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -19.7% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -27.4% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -34.5% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 47¢ | $41 | $42 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 02 | $101 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 02 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 01 | $71 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | Jun 01 | $38 | +$2 | +6% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | May 31 | $17 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 30 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 28 | $37 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 28 | $12 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? | May 28 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? | Apr 18 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 | Apr 17 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18? | Apr 16 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? | Apr 11 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? | Apr 10 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? | Apr 02 | $16 | −$1 | -7% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? | Mar 30 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 29 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? | Mar 25 | $1 | −$1 | -54% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 24 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? | Mar 24 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of | Mar 22 | $16 | $0 | -0% |