Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa51b…751e crypto 1629 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$732 (-11%) realized −$732 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%643W / 987L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day47.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days+$2
14 days−$1,966
30 days−$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$126
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 +0.8% -8.8% 42% 41% -7.6%
≤30d 1324 -9.1% -17.8% 30% 30% -17.2%
≤90d 1630 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 39% -11.3%
all 1630 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 39% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 39% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 35% -19.8%
15% -26.3% 31% -27.5%
20% -33.5% 27% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$732
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses643 / 987
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1630 / 1629
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1630 Trades
no open positions (231 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records