Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:13:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
A5 0xa51a…a382 crypto 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$43 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%247W / 10L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$50
other 18% −$6
economics 11% −$4
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 52 -1.8% -11.1% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 257 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.56 per $1 lost it wins $4.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses247 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)257 / 259
History coverage245d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $163 $162 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 25? No 99¢ 98¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 21? Jun 21 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 18? Jun 18 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? Jun 15 $177 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 10? Jun 10 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 9? Jun 09 $84 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 6? Jun 06 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $175 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $161 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 27? May 27 $161 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $161 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 25 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? May 24 $159 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 19? May 19 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 17? May 17 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? May 15 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 10? May 10 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 8? May 08 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? May 07 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? May 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 29? May 02 $174 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 27 $174 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on April 25? Apr 25 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,800 on April 23? Apr 23 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 22? Apr 21 $0 $0 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 April 13-19? Apr 20 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 20? Apr 20 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 18 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 15? Apr 16 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 14? Apr 15 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on April 13? Apr 14 $172 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 11? Apr 11 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 8? Apr 10 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on April 2? Apr 03 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 1? Apr 01 $171 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 30? Mar 31 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 29? Mar 29 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 28? Mar 28 $170 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 26? Mar 26 $170 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $163 1h
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $54 3d
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $125 3d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $179 6d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $84 11d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $110 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $94 11d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $80 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $92 15d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $84 15d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $176 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $176 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $176 17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $175 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $161 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $161 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $161 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $160 28d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $159 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $87 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $72 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $160 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $160 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $160 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 40d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $174 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $174 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $150 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 7? BUY No 100¢ $23 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.89 · official $178.89 (match) · 573 history records