Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
A5 0xa519…e0b2 sports 270 markets active 2h ago coverage 417d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$122 (-2%) realized −$180 · open +$58
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%108W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$128
14 days−$128
30 days−$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$53
economics 19% +$102
sports 18% +$85
other 13% −$169
politics 8% −$197
crypto 4% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -10.4% -18.9% 39% 39% -28.8%
≤30d 63 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 43% -30.3%
≤90d 221 -7.9% -16.6% 42% 41% -9.1%
all 263 -10.2% -18.8% 41% 40% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 40% -13.7%
10% -26.6% 39% -21.9%
15% -33.6% 38% -29.5%
20% -40.2% 35% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$17 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

417d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses108 / 155
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions7
Markets (closed)263 / 270
History coverage417d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 33¢ $188 $188 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 26¢ 57¢ $50 $110 +$60 (+120%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 33¢ 36¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 57¢ 58¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Toronto Tempo 50¢ 38¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-23%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 +$39 +128%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -38%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$13 +88%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$12 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $110 −$98 -89%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $25 +$42 +165%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$5 -22%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $62 +$33 +54%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$20 +102%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $20 −$1 -3%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $11 −$11 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 31 $13 −$13 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 31 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 31 $10 +$10 +103%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $10 +$9 +86%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $10 +$8 +76%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$16 +81%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$6 -19%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Kilian Feldbausch May 30 $10 +$8 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Camila Osorio May 30 $10 +$9 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $13 +$10 +73%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $10 +$10 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $10 +$8 +79%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Surrey May 29 $20 +$19 +94%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Nottinghamshire May 29 $30 −$29 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $11 −$11 -99%
ITF Lakewood: Spencer Johnson vs Ozan Baris May 28 $12 +$10 +82%
ITF Lakewood: Theodore Dean vs Iiro Vasa May 28 $10 +$9 +91%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $103 +$138 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $193 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 57¢ $20 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 50¢ $15 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 22h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $40 47h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $50 47h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No $12 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 95¢ $67 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 24¢ $10 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 51¢ $15 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $37 5d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $121 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.32 · official $421.39 · 630 history records