Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
A5 0xa514…526c other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 356d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,232 (+439%) realized +$2,312 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +347% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +304% what you keep after slip
Net edge+304%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$76
crypto 30% +$2,161
tech 10% −$6
sports 6% −$5
politics 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+304.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 +347.0% +304.5% 57% 57% +626.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +304.5% 57% +626.7%
10% +265.8% 43% +557.2%
15% +230.4% 43% +493.7%
20% +198.0% 43% +435.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +347% · $-wt +744% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$590 vs −$21 · ×28.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×37.93 per $1 lost it wins $37.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

356d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$2,312
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage356d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 23? Down 60¢ 56¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23? Down 65¢ 57¢ $48 $43 −$6 (-11%)
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 23? Down 39¢ 32¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-17%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 6¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-83%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Feb 12 $100 +$12 +12%
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 03 $6 +$15 +254%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 28 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 28 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 28 $30 −$26 -86%
Will Do Kwon be sentenced to 12+ years in prison? Dec 12 $30 +$128 +426%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 23 $104 +$2,206 +2121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 39¢ $30 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 65¢ $49 1h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? SELL No 49¢ $112 130d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $100 139d
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 139d
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 85¢ $21 140d
Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $6 145d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 177d
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 3¢ $2 177d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 177d
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 12¢ $10 194d
Will Do Kwon be sentenced to 12+ years in prison? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 197d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $30 197d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $50 197d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $29 197d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? SELL Yes 28¢ $871 335d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? SELL Yes 46¢ $1,319 337d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 337d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? SELL Yes 46¢ $102 337d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? SELL Yes 46¢ $8 337d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 337d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? BUY Yes 2¢ $104 355d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.49 · official $116.74 (match) · 24 history records