Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

A5
0xa513…a32c
world · 64 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$4 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage333d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$5 +81%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $29 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $92 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $98 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $82 −$2 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $31 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $68 −$2 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $53 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $33 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $48 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 02 $33 $0 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $1 $0 -4%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri Mar 30 $31 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% +$1
other 18% $0
sports 16% $0
politics 15% $0
crypto 7% +$2
economics 5% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 2h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $5 11h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $1 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $29 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $30 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 94¢ $29 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $29 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $30 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $14 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $15 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $30 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $20 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $10 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 8d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 9d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $18 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $12 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +16.4% +5.3% 50% 33% -7.4%
≤30d 20 +4.4% -5.6% 40% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 56 +1.7% -8.0% 34% 4% -9.4%
all 63 +1.5% -8.1% 35% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 3% -9.4%
10% -16.9% 2% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.3% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 244 history records