Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:56:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa50f…33a7 crypto 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%88W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.8% -28.3% 42% 42% -28.4%
≤30d 133 +7.7% -2.6% 66% 53% -12.1%
≤90d 133 +7.7% -2.6% 66% 53% -12.1%
all 133 +7.7% -2.6% 66% 53% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 53% -12.1%
10% -11.9% 40% -20.6%
15% -20.4% 34% -28.2%
20% -28.2% 29% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses88 / 45
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage24d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 25 $97 −$94 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 25 $41 +$56 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 25 $25 +$14 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 25 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 25 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 25 $77 −$62 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 25 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 25 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 25 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 25 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 25 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10AM ET May 25 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 25 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 25 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 25 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 25 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 24 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 24 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7PM ET May 24 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 24 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 24 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 24 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 24 $3 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET May 24 $2 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 467 history records