Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:53:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa50f…d480 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+16%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$16
sports 9% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -15.6% -23.6% 30% 30% +6.4%
≤30d 10 -15.6% -23.6% 30% 30% +6.4%
≤90d 10 -15.6% -23.6% 30% 30% +6.4%
all 10 -15.6% -23.6% 30% 30% +6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 30% +6.4%
10% -31.0% 30% -3.7%
15% -37.6% 30% -13.0%
20% -43.7% 20% -21.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$10 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$66 +432%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +44%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 16h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 36h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records