Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
A5 0xa50e…1978 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$5
other 11% $0
politics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.6% -3.5% 25% 25% -2.9%
≤30d 15 +1.7% -8.0% 27% 7% -8.5%
≤90d 15 +1.7% -8.0% 27% 7% -8.5%
all 33 +0.6% -9.0% 52% 3% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -8.6%
10% -17.7% 3% -17.4%
15% -25.6% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.03 per $1 lost it wins $5.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage491d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $16 +$5 +31%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $29 $0 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $58 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 27 $8 $0 +3%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 25 $8 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 24 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 23 $8 $0 -1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by Friday? Apr 22 $1 $0 -22%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 22 $6 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $10 $0 -1%
Anderlecht vs. Fenerbahce Mar 03 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 64¢ $21 16h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 49¢ $16 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $8 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $8 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $32 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 9d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $29 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $29 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $29 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $29 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $6 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $23 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $29 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $5 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $24 12d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $29 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $11 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.26 · official $36.26 (match) · 90 history records