Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:36:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
A5 0xa50e…583e politics 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,248 (-5%) realized −$1,798 · open −$450
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate25%25W / 77L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$129
14 days−$295
30 days+$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$671
world 23% −$29
economics 9% −$1,337
other 8% −$577
tech 1% −$17
finance 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.6% -13.7% 27% 7% -10.9%
≤30d 38 +4.6% -5.3% 34% 13% -8.5%
≤90d 59 +2.0% -7.7% 31% 10% -11.8%
all 102 -0.8% -10.2% 25% 9% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 9% -14.3%
10% -18.8% 6% -22.5%
15% -26.7% 4% -30.0%
20% -33.9% 4% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$47 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$450
Realized−$1,798
Unrealized−$450
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses25 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage127d
Avg bet$413
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes $900 $450 −$450 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? Jun 15 $902 −$45 -5%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 15 $784 −$234 -30%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 15 $34 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $900 −$61 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $900 +$177 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $900 $0 -0%
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? Jun 14 $36 −$8 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $900 −$3 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $909 +$15 +2%
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 13 $345 −$28 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $1,917 +$59 +3%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $224 $0 +0%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $901 +$9 +1%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? Jun 06 $24 $0 +1%
Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Jun 06 $900 +$1 +0%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri Jun 06 $900 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 06 $86 +$181 +210%
Will Christina Bohannan be the Democratic Nominee for IA-01? Jun 03 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $174 −$3 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 03 $900 −$5 -0%
Will Mike Rounds be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Dakota? Jun 02 $900 −$9 -1%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jun 01 $51 −$7 -13%
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Jun 01 $518 −$334 -64%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $111 +$280 +253%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $333 −$29 -9%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 9, 2026? May 21 $73 −$71 -97%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 7, 2026? May 20 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 20 $43 −$6 -14%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 20 $903 −$78 -9%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $910 +$227 +25%
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? May 19 $92 −$3 -4%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect May 19 $671 +$169 +25%
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary May 19 $900 −$2 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runof May 19 $905 −$18 -2%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $917 +$50 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 12 $155 −$9 -6%
Will Thom Tillis vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal R Apr 27 $900 −$571 -64%
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple? Apr 20 $10 +$27 +266%
Will Romuald Wadagni be the next President of Benin? Apr 14 $900 −$9 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $900 +$69 +8%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 13 $900 +$79 +9%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 10 $900 −$87 -10%
Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "TrumpRX Dot Gov" in April? Apr 10 $142 −$3 -2%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 10 $900 −$138 -15%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 07 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Trump endorse Steve Hilton in CA-Gov for Nov 2 2026 ET? Apr 07 $407 −$282 -69%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 31 $900 −$21 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $857 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 44¢ $550 1h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele SELL Yes 87¢ $32 1h
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele BUY Yes 91¢ $34 1h
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $902 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 60¢ $784 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $900 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $839 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes $44 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $900 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $44 8h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $1,077 15h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $900 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $900 27h
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $897 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $916 27h
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $900 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $900 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $900 27h
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 27h
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $36 27h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 11¢ $3 44h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 12¢ $3 44h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $318 47h
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $345 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $138 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $142 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.00 · official $450.00 (match) · 248 history records