Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:08:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
A5 0xa50e…d357 crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$457 (+13%) realized +$457 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$478
crypto 39% −$118
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 40% -0.3%
≤30d 10 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 40% -0.3%
≤90d 10 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 40% -0.3%
all 10 -24.4% -31.6% 50% 40% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 40% -0.3%
10% -38.2% 20% -9.8%
15% -44.1% 20% -18.5%
20% -49.6% 20% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$30 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.3 per $1 lost it wins $3.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$457
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $790 +$24 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $129 +$25 +19%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $669 +$123 +18%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,234 −$106 -9%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $455 +$271 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $93 +$60 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $814 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $790 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $154 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $792 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $669 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $668 6h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $10 15h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $720 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $455 24h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $461 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 12¢ $153 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $153 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $93 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $514 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records