Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
A5 0xa509…acd0 sports 25 markets active 19h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,151 (-45%) realized −$2,151 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$4
14 days+$11
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$2,152
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.7% -5.3% 50% 50% +1.0%
≤30d 18 +4.3% -5.7% 56% 56% -6.0%
≤90d 19 -1.2% -10.6% 53% 53% -9.9%
all 25 -0.9% -10.4% 52% 52% -50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 52% -50.5%
10% -18.9% 52% -55.2%
15% -26.8% 48% -59.6%
20% -34.0% 40% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$287 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage181d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $7 +$5 +74%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 −$6 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$8 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $4 +$5 +133%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $7 +$3 +40%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $6 +$2 +44%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 31 $9 −$9 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 28 $5 +$3 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $3 +$2 +73%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 24 $5 +$6 +119%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 21 $4 +$3 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 19 $2,532 −$2,532 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 11AM ET Dec 19 $213 +$213 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 12PM ET Dec 19 $434 +$434 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 9AM ET Dec 19 $606 +$606 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 1PM ET Dec 18 $680 −$680 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 10AM ET Dec 18 $192 −$192 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 18h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 63¢ $7 44h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $2 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $1 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 4d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 30¢ $3 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $10 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 9d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 71¢ $7 12d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $6 15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $9 17d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $1 19d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $0 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $9 21d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 57¢ $3 24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 26d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 27d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 29d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 32d
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 52¢ $4 33d
Solana Up or Down - December 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2,532 180d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 1PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $680 181d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 12PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $434 181d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $213 181d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $192 181d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 9AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $606 181d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records