Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

A5 0xa503…f016 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$5 (-5%) realized +$17 · open −$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate91%10W / 1L

Drawdown12%max

Avg bet$7per market

Trades / day27.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+24.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+37.3%	+24.2%	91%	55%	+9.5%
≤30d	11	+37.3%	+24.2%	91%	55%	+9.5%
≤90d	11	+37.3%	+24.2%	91%	55%	+9.5%
all	11	+37.3%	+24.2%	91%	55%	+9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover27.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+24.2%	55%	+9.5%
10% ← realistic here	+12.3%	36%	-0.9%
15%	+1.5%	18%	-10.5%
20%	-8.5%	18%	-19.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×9.41 per $1 lost it wins $9.41

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$17

Unrealized−$22

Win rate (resolved)91%

Wins / losses10 / 1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)11 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$7

Trades / day27.0

Drawdown12%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	24¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	31¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	57¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	63¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Jun 17	$12	+$1	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 17	$15	+$1	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$5	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 17	$4	+$1	+33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 17	$2	+$6	+296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$1	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 17	$14	+$1	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+19%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$5	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$2	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$5	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	10¢	$2	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$2	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$2	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$2	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	37¢	$2	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$2	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$10	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$5	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$5	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$5	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$2	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$2	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Up	79¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	88¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$5	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 37 history records